Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 12%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,340·Volume $3,036·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes48%No52%
Smart money leans
Yes
48% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
48%price48%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$447 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered78¢48¢at 07:34(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,340
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $447 riding on it.
The price of 48% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 48¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $447 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $114 |
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $246 |
| 5d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $165 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $204 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.4¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.1¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $2 |