Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $31·Volume $3,453·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes49%No51%
Smart money leans
Yes
49% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
49%price49%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$251 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢49¢at 07:24(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy5d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$31
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $251 riding on it.
The price of 49% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 49¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $251 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $414 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 82¢ | $170 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $162 |