Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.5K·Volume $12.6K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes16%No84%
Smart money leans
No
69% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$267 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered76¢69¢at 06:34(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $267 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 76¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $267 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $161 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $155 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $173 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $120 |