Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
ActiveLiquidity $199·Volume $10.6K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes35%No66%
Smart money leans
No
66% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
66%price66%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$295 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢66¢at 05:33(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$199
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $295 riding on it.
The price of 66% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 66¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $295 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $204 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $155 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | No | 73¢ | $444 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | No | 77¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 54¢ | $331 |