Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 40%-45%?
ActiveLiquidity $37·Volume $4,647·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes94%No6%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$590 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$47
72h +$1,182
Smart money entered74¢94¢at 07:14(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy22h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$37
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $590 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $590 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$47, +$1,182 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:14
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $5 |
| 22h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $5 |
| 22h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 22h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $541 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $541 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 5.8¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 8.3¢ | $27 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.1¢ | $3 |