Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $13.2K·Volume $34.7K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$349 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered33¢99¢at 06:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$13.2K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $349 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 33¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $349 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 8.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540Mid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $152 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 35¢ | $149 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 35¢ | $27 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $72 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 19¢ | $118 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 19¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 19¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 19¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $83 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $294 |