Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-09 House election by 12% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $58·Volume $8,121·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
88%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$562 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered98¢96¢at 07:36(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$58
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $562 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $562 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:36
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $577 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $18 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $4 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $4 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $9 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $85 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $65 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |