Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-10 House election by 65%-70%?
ActiveLiquidity $80·Volume $5,104·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes85%No16%
Smart money leans
Yes
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$274 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered59¢85¢at 07:26(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$80
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $274 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 59¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $274 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:26
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $73 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $186 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 69¢ | $27 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $16 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $16 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $15 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |