Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 10%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.0K·Volume $5,204·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes96%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$402 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢96¢at 07:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.0K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $402 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $402 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.