Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-03 House election by 20%-25%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,281·Volume $2,496·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes57%No43%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$990 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$996
72h +$996
Smart money entered96¢97¢at 05:43Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,281
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $990 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $990 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$996, +$996 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $992 |
| 5h ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 1.8¢ | $7 |
| 5h ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 1.9¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 14¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $2 |