Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-01 House election by 20%-25%?
ActiveLiquidity $42·Volume $2,348·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes93%No8%
Smart money leans
Yes
93% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
93%price93%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$301 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$301
72h +$301
Smart money entered98¢93¢at 05:43(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$42
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $301 riding on it.
The price of 93% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 93¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $301 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$301, +$301 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $318 |
| 5h ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 2.8¢ | $1 |