Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-03 House election by 0%-5%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,317·Volume $1,135·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$260 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered90¢99¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,317
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $260 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $260 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $47 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $58 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $720 |