Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-02 House election by 15%-20%?
ActiveLiquidity $11.0K·Volume $8,659·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes95%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$517 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered62¢95¢at 07:37(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $517 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 62¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $517 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $436 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $51 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $7 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 19¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 20¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 20¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $21 |
| 7w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $50 |
| 7w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $0 |