Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-12 House election by 40%-45%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.5K·Volume $6,839·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$545 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered56¢99¢at 07:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $545 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $545 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $562 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 53¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $50 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $51 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 84¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 84¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $117 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $15 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $34 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 80¢ | $16 |