Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NH-01 House election by 10%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,131·Volume $4,816·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes72%No28%
Smart money leans
Yes
72% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
72%price72%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$543 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢72¢at 07:32(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,131
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $543 riding on it.
The price of 72% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 72¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $543 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $651 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $21 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $55 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $10 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $6 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $104 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $97 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $64 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 37¢ | $21 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $28 |