Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $5,906·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$259 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered74¢99¢at 07:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $259 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $259 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $262 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $4 |