Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
ActiveLiquidity $62·Volume $11.6K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes62%No38%
Smart money leans
Yes
62% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
62%price62%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$846 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered26¢62¢at 07:33(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$62
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $846 riding on it.
The price of 62% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 26¢; the price was 62¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $846 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $834 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $2 |