Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $10.2K·Volume $11.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$448 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered43¢98¢at 07:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $448 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 43¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $448 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $78 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $334 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $10 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $4 |