Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $67·Volume $8,807·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes69%No31%
Smart money leans
No
32% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
56%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
32%price32%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$276 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered64¢32¢at 07:39(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$67
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is narrowly leaning toward betting on "No", with $276 riding on it.
The price of 32% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 64¢; the price was 32¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $276 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $557 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 61¢ | $3 |