Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6%-9%?
ActiveLiquidity $11.0K·Volume $7,948·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$268 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered66¢100¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $268 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 66¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $268 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $21 |
| 6d ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540Mid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $247 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 67¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $47 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 82¢ | $282 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $21 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $35 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $219 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $19 |