Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 12%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $5,606·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,012 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢99¢at 07:38(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,012 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,012 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:38
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $21 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $499 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $9 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $515 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $79 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $8 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $6 |