Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $236·Volume $22.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,039 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢97¢at 07:17(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$236
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,039 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,039 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:17
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $161 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $878 |