Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MS-02 House election by 35%-40%?
ActiveLiquidity $19·Volume $2,807·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$574 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,077
Smart money entered79¢98¢at 07:01(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$19
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $574 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $574 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,077 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:01
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $534 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $533 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $10 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $14 |