Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $10.5K·Volume $17.7K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$4,723 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢99¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $4,723 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $4,723 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $1,150 |
| 6w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $1,982 |
| 7w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $522 |
| 8w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $873 |
| 8w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $13 |
| 8w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $197 |