Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?
ActiveLiquidity $11.1K·Volume $15.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$442 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered71¢100¢at 07:21(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $442 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 71¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $442 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $37 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 27¢ | $98 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $14 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $71 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $71 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $18 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $15 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $71 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $15 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $40 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $102 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $6 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $10 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $60 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 78¢ | $22 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 82¢ | $198 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $206 |