Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-05 House election by 3% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $4·Volume $1,655·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes51%No49%
Smart money leans
Yes
51% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
51%price51%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$289 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered67¢51¢at 07:39(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$4
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $289 riding on it.
The price of 51% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 67¢; the price was 51¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $289 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $21 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $350 |
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 6.3¢ | $2 |