Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 30%-35%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,141·Volume $2,040·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$653 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢99¢at 07:11(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,141
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $653 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $653 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:11
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $653 |