Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-04 House election by 25%-30%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,255·Volume $2,278·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$489 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered87¢97¢at 07:24(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,255
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $489 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $489 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $492 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $13 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $4 |