Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 6%-9%?
ActiveLiquidity $78·Volume $6,008·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes79%No22%
Smart money leans
Yes
82% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$641 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$721
Smart money entered87¢82¢at 07:12(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$78
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $641 riding on it.
The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $641 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$721 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $182 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $26 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $46 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $46 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $26 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $411 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 31¢ | $82 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $10 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $31 |