Will La Bola Negra win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
ActiveLiquidity $5,996·Volume $26.7K·Ends Mar 14, 2027
Price now:Yes44%No56%
Smart money leans
Yes
44% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
44%price44%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$743 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered47¢44¢at 07:39(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4w agoResolvesin 124d(Mar 14, 2027)Liquidity$5,996
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $743 riding on it.
The price of 44% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 47¢; the price was 44¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $743 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.