Will "The Birthday Gift" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
ActiveLiquidity $610·Volume $4,929·Ends Mar 15, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$615 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered74¢96¢at 11:49(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 124d(Mar 15, 2027)Liquidity$610
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $615 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $615 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:49
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $613 |
| 3w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $8 |