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Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $85.4K·Volume $171.6K·Ends Nov 29, 2026
Price now:Yes64%No36%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:31computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
64% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
64%price64%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,985 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,992
Smart money entered60¢64¢at 07:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 18d(Nov 29, 2026)Liquidity$85.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,985 riding on it.

The price of 64% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 60¢; the price was 64¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $2,985 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,992 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$138
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$138
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$265
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$82
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$82
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$42
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$82
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$42
1d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$82
2d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes63¢$145
2d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes63¢$123
2d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes63¢$47
2d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes63¢$145
2d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes63¢$116
2d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$137
2d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$5
2d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$75
2d agoscrapbookMidBuyYes61¢$116
2d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes63¢$53
2d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo34¢$14
2d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo35¢$3
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes57¢$1
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes57¢$1
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes57¢$186
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes57¢$17
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes57¢$30
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes59¢$511
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes57¢$26
3d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes59¢$79
3d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo40¢$21
3d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo39¢$25
3d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo38¢$38
5d agodsoperativeTopBuyYes56¢$560
5d ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo44¢$44
6d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo48¢$6
6d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo44¢$5
6d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo47¢$15
6d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo47¢$8
6d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo43¢$21
6d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellNo49¢$3
1w agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo45¢$3
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo54¢$54
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo57¢$4
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo56¢$5
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo56¢$4
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo54¢$0
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo66¢$54
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo54¢$9
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo54¢$4
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo53¢$5