Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $13.5K·Volume $6,099·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$597 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢98¢at 08:07(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$13.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $597 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $597 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 08:07
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $598 |