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Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $4,951·Volume $7,463·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes53%No47%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:32computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
53% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
53%price53%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$412 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered83¢53¢at 07:32(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$4,951
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $412 riding on it.

The price of 53% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 53¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $412 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3d agoDumplingBMFMidSellYes55¢$22
1w agoDumplingBMFMidSellYes73¢$168
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes77¢$108
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes80¢$7
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes84¢$42
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes80¢$60
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes80¢$13
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes84¢$42
3w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$4
3w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$0
3w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes83¢$246
4w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes84¢$168
4w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes74¢$37
5w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes88¢$144
7w agoDumplingBMFMidSellYes87¢$171
7w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$13
7w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$33
7w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$13
8w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$7
8w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$20
8w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$23
9w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$13
9w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$5
9w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes87¢$42