TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $4,776·Volume $87.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes66%No35%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:33computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
66% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
83%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
66%price66%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$6,654 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,739
72h +$1,739
Smart money entered43¢66¢at 02:33(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy17h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$4,776
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $6,654 riding on it.

The price of 66% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 43¢; the price was 66¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $6,654 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,739, +$1,739 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:33
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes33¢$132
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes33¢$132
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes34¢$20
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes34¢$20
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes41¢$8
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes41¢$16
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes41¢$17
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes41¢$17
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes32¢$255
17h agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes32¢$255
4d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes39¢$59
4d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes30¢$335
4d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes8.1¢$155
6d agoVoland6777MidBuyNo85¢$500
6d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes17¢$3
6d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes17¢$8
6d agoVoland6777MidBuyNo80¢$2,200
6d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes17¢$5
6d agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes17¢$154
1w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo70¢$11
1w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo70¢$41
1w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo72¢$667
1w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo71¢$71
1w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo70¢$70
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo66¢$30
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo66¢$3
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo75¢$29
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo75¢$46
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo78¢$200
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo75¢$75
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo78¢$200
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo69¢$75
2w ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo45¢$2
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo73¢$9
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo73¢$1
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$44
6w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo80¢$91
6w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo80¢$28
6w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo75¢$56
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo56¢$5
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo56¢$21
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo56¢$8
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo56¢$2
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo56¢$3
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo56¢$17
8w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes51¢$2,549
8w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes58¢$2,900
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo34¢$34
9w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$35
9w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes61¢$38