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Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $3,065·Volume $73.9K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes6%No94%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 03:26computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
6% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
6%price6%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$288 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered52¢5.7¢at 03:26(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,065
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $288 riding on it.

The price of 6% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 52¢; the price was 5.7¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $288 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 03:26
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$481
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$481
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$249
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$249
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$249
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$249
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$244
1d agoSlenderManMidSellNo93¢$244
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$4
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$110
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$10
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$92
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$7
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo74¢$74
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo60¢$60
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo60¢$100
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo59¢$12
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo60¢$2
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo59¢$118
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo60¢$4
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo60¢$60
6w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo50¢$79
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes50¢$72
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes50¢$13
6w ago1nvoker1MidSellNo49¢$36
6w ago1nvoker1MidSellNo49¢$3
6w ago1nvoker1MidSellNo48¢$62
6w ago1nvoker1MidSellNo49¢$143
6w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo49¢$52
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes50¢$10
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes50¢$100
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes50¢$0
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes48¢$48
6w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes48¢$69
7w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo50¢$70
7w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo50¢$76
7w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo50¢$18
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyYes42¢$50
7w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes41¢$21
7w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes41¢$212
7w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo49¢$122
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$8
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$18
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$10
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$8
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$2
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo36¢$26
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo37¢$37
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo38¢$38
8w ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo36¢$32