Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $6,727·Volume $77.0K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
81%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$2,285 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$949
Smart money entered86¢95¢at 06:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$6,727
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $2,285 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$949 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1,222 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1,222 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $91 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $260 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,730 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,750 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $250 |
| 1w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $177 |
| 4w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $50 |
| 4w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $32 |
| 4w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $18 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $69 |
| 7w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $60 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $442 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $57 |
| 10w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 44¢ | $2 |
| 12w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $19 |
| 12w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $2 |
| 12w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $294 |