Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $5,631·Volume $60.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes84%No16%
Smart money leans
Yes
84% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
84%price84%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,096 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$62
72h +$72
Smart money entered79¢84¢at 02:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$5,631
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,096 riding on it.
The price of 84% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 84¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,096 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$62, +$72 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:10
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $62 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $375 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $415 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $29 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $415 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $29 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $375 |
| 2d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $1,449 |
| 1w ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 17¢ | $62 |
| 1w ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 28¢ | $103 |
| 2w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $305 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 13¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 13¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 13¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 13¢ | $23 |
| 2w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 15¢ | $50 |
| 3w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 85¢ | $139 |
| 5w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $9 |
| 5w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $20 |
| 5w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $14 |
| 5w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $69 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $153 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 25¢ | $64 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $50 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $308 |