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Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?

ActiveLiquidity $5,631·Volume $60.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes84%No16%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:10computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
84% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
84%price84%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,096 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$62
72h +$72
Smart money entered79¢84¢at 02:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$5,631
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,096 riding on it.

The price of 84% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 84¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,096 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$62, +$72 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:10
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h agoVoland6777MidBuyYes84¢$62
2d agoVoland6777MidSellYes95¢$375
2d agoVoland6777MidSellYes95¢$415
2d agoVoland6777MidSellYes95¢$29
2d agoVoland6777MidSellYes95¢$415
2d agoVoland6777MidSellYes95¢$29
2d agoVoland6777MidSellYes95¢$375
2d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes83¢$1,449
1w agoVoland6777MidSellNo17¢$62
1w agoVoland6777MidSellNo28¢$103
2w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes68¢$305
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$12
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$1
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$2
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$13
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo13¢$23
2w agoVoland6777MidBuyNo15¢$50
3w agoDumplingBMFMidSellYes85¢$139
5w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes69¢$0
5w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes69¢$9
5w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes69¢$20
5w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes69¢$14
5w agoDumplingBMFMidBuyYes69¢$69
7w agoStarMasterMidSellYes71¢$153
7w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo25¢$64
7w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes76¢$50
7w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes77¢$308