Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $2,412·Volume $30.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,882 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$56
72h -$56
Smart money entered89¢99¢at 07:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$2,412
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,882 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,882 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$56, -$56 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $56 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,950 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |