Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $6,967·Volume $94.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes50%No50%
Smart money leans
No
51% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
75%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
51%price50%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$537 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$116
Smart money entered64¢51¢at 07:10Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$6,967
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $537 riding on it.
The price of 51% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 64¢; the price was 51¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $537 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$116 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:10
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 43¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 43¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 50¢ | $81 |
| 3d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 43¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 43¢ | $21 |
| 3d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $130 |
| 3d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $31 |
| 4d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $62 |
| 4d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $56 |
| 4d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $566 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 55¢ | $110 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 56¢ | $56 |
| 5d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $309 |
| 5d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $13 |
| 5d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $84 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $491 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $50 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $110 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $40 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $34 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $26 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $113 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $262 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $78 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $75 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $105 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $131 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $69 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $70 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $49 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $75 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $131 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $150 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $11 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $53 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $150 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $53 |