Will Roger Cristóbal Gronerth Pinedo win the next Maynas mayoral elections?
ActiveLiquidity $279·Volume $11.1K·Ends Oct 5, 2026
Price now:Yes50%No50%
Smart money leans
Yes
50% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
50%price50%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$311 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered60¢50¢at 07:34(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Oct 5, 2026)Liquidity$279
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $311 riding on it.
The price of 50% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 60¢; the price was 50¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $311 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $86 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $196 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $98 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $19 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $19 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $33 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $45 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $3 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $6 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $1 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $18 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $15 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $17 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $18 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $29 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $23 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 83¢ | $9 |
| 9w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 57¢ | $123 |
| 9w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 47¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 43¢ | $71 |
| 9w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $25 |
| 10w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $45 |
| 11w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $8 |
| 11w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $23 |