Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $13.2K·Volume $32.9K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes84%No16%
Smart money leans
Yes
84% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
86%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
84%price84%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$4,317 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢84¢at 07:44(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$13.2K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $4,317 riding on it.
The price of 84% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 84¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $4,317 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | ThanksGivingTurkey1001Mid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $4,338 |
| 4w ago | ThanksGivingTurkey1001Mid | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $73 |
| 10w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 40¢ | $90 |