Will PSOE win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?
ActiveLiquidity $4,247·Volume $5,707·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes23%No78%
Smart money leans
Yes
22% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
22%price22%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$361 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered25¢22¢at 07:01(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 19d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$4,247
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $361 riding on it.
The price of 22% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 25¢; the price was 22¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $361 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:01
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $91 |
| 1w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $33 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $446 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 69¢ | $15 |