Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $17.5K·Volume $30.1K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,147 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered93¢97¢at 11:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 50d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$17.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,147 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,147 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $93 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $266 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $15 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $93 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $101 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $93 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $74 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $47 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $29 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $95 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $48 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $283 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1 |