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Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $8,677·Volume $36.7K·Ends Dec 19, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 03:21computed 2h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$370 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered78¢100¢at 03:21(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 38d(Dec 19, 2026)Liquidity$8,677
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $370 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $370 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 03:21
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes92¢$809
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$16
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$138
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$23
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$414
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$1
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$39
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$1
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$450
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$16
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$16
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$290
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$326
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$27
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$60
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$15
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$2
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$24
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$8
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$308
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes91¢$303
1w agoJSG3TopSellYes90¢$51
3w agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo22¢$3
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$300
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$113
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$25
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$30
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$11
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$8
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$4
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$17
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$38
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$8
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$7
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$0
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$11
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$13
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$13
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$37
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$5
5w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$62
6w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$20
6w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$5
6w agoJSG3TopBuyYes75¢$25
6w agoJSG3TopBuyYes76¢$364
7w agoJSG3TopBuyYes80¢$1,299
7w agoJSG3TopBuyYes77¢$829
10w agoYouSayUpISayDownMidBuyNo69¢$58