Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?
ActiveLiquidity $14.8K·Volume $76.2K·Ends Mar 31, 2027
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$869 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered56¢96¢at 00:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 141d(Mar 31, 2027)Liquidity$14.8K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $869 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $869 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $705 |
| 3w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $110 |
| 4w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $60 |
| 5w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $47 |
| 5w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | Yes | 5.2¢ | $14 |
| 5w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | Yes | 6.3¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | Yes | 6.4¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $123 |
| 5w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $5 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $14 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $31 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $31 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $19 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $177 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $56 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $70 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $161 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $73 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $71 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $149 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $117 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $179 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $57 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $14 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $72 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.7¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.9¢ | $20 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $163 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $2,010 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $68 |
| 6w ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $259 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $899 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $159 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $168 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $32 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $478 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $15 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $157 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $36 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $138 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $80 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $18 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $12 |