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Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $28.0K·Volume $56.9K·Ends Mar 1, 2027
Price now:Yes32%No68%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:45computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
32% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
32%price32%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$364 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered42¢32¢at 07:45(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 110d(Mar 1, 2027)Liquidity$28.0K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $364 riding on it.

The price of 32% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 42¢; the price was 32¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $364 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
5d agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes41¢$139
5d agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes44¢$287
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes45¢$114
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes49¢$478
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes54¢$103
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$581
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes39¢$226
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes40¢$17
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes44¢$449
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes46¢$39
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes46¢$82
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes48¢$114
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes43¢$226
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes41¢$33
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo52¢$425
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes44¢$104
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$748
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo56¢$28
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo56¢$224
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo56¢$29
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$238
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes42¢$267
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes38¢$159
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo59¢$456
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes39¢$510
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes40¢$200
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes38¢$54
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes35¢$585
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes39¢$633
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes37¢$70
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes38¢$65
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$55
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes34¢$262
3w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes35¢$51
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo62¢$459
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo50¢$100
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes32¢$666
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes35¢$93
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$37
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$54
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$58
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo62¢$504
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo59¢$102
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes33¢$147
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes32¢$49
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes22¢$118
5w agoHolyMoses7MidSellNo66¢$33
5w agoHolyMoses7MidSellNo66¢$98
5w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo63¢$843
5w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes28¢$44