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Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $31.7K·Volume $92.3K·Ends Mar 1, 2027
Price now:Yes32%No68%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 11:41computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
32% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
32%price32%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$906 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$111
Smart money entered43¢32¢at 11:41(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 110d(Mar 1, 2027)Liquidity$31.7K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $906 riding on it.

The price of 32% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 43¢; the price was 32¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $906 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$111 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 11:41
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes31¢$55
2d agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes31¢$54
3d agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes35¢$207
5d agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes33¢$71
5d agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes44¢$65
6d agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes44¢$76
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$156
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$134
1w agokekkoneMidSellYes49¢$121
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes52¢$97
1w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes54¢$65
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes50¢$596
1w agokekkoneMidBuyYes44¢$22
1w agokekkoneMidBuyYes48¢$48
1w agokekkoneMidBuyYes45¢$45
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes46¢$184
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes46¢$104
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$96
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes42¢$57
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes42¢$88
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes38¢$387
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes42¢$102
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes41¢$226
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes40¢$74
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes41¢$21
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo56¢$460
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo57¢$163
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes39¢$426
2w agoHolyMoses7MidSellNo60¢$316
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes39¢$12
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$396
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo61¢$941
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo61¢$386
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo61¢$25
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$478
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes37¢$250
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo59¢$774
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$686
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes37¢$29
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$421
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo60¢$611
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes36¢$81
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo61¢$2,074
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes33¢$602
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo63¢$1,269
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes31¢$788
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes32¢$72
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo62¢$1,037
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes32¢$85
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes32¢$231