Will Nelson Pohl win the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election?
ActiveLiquidity $8,967·Volume $2,533·Ends Dec 7, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,481 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$315
Smart money entered94¢97¢at 07:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 27d(Dec 7, 2026)Liquidity$8,967
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,481 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,481 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$315 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $312 |
| 5d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $1,172 |