Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?
ActiveLiquidity $24.5K·Volume $8,734·Ends Nov 10, 2026
Price now:Yes31%No69%
Smart money leans
No
69% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
55%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price68%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$250 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered63¢69¢at 07:03Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 10, 2026)Liquidity$24.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are narrowly leaning toward betting on "No", with $250 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 63¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $250 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:03
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $31 |
| 1w ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $46 |
| 2w ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $24 |
| 3w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $36 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $123 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $45 |
| 4w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $98 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $211 |
| 4w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $129 |